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Nouriel Roubini Once Considered An Obscure Academic Professor is now-
The Talk Of The Town
by William M Wright BBA MBA 9-30-2008

Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University. He is also the chairman of Roubini Global Economics, a popular economics website.

Here is a link to his most recent articles: The Risk of Global Stag-Deflation and The Dismal Global Economic Outlook. Below is a recent news article interviewing Roubini.


Listen to Professor Roubin and learn why he believes more bad news is ahead of us.


We’ve chosen to feature Professor Roubini because those taking his advice have either saved millions (by getting out of financial stocks and all stock markets in 2007) or made millions shorting those same stocks and markets.

Traditional doomsayers of America like money managers Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff were right about telling investors to get out of "dollars". And they were half-right by telling investors to buy stocks in commodities and rising foreign economies over the U.S. markets.

But they assumed, like many others, that strong foreign markets had “decupled” from the American market. Many investors forgot China's biggest market is the American consumer.

The common assumption now is major world economies are linked and rapidly declining so commodity prices are now expected to decline.

Roubini is an economist who understands the link between nations and unlike money managers has no motivation to sway you into or out of any stocks.


Professor Roubini is the author of several books, including: Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies, Political Cycles and the Macro economy, and International Financial Crises and the New International Financial Architecture.


He served in various roles at the Treasury Department, including Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Affairs and Director of the Office of Policy Development and Review (July 1999 - June 2000). Previously, he was a Senior Economist for International Affairs on the Staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisors (July 1998 - July 1999).


Currently, Professor Roubini is a Professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He has also held teaching positions at Yale University.


Roubini is known for his predictions of this current financial crisis, notably at the IMF in 2006, where his views were considered extreme.But his predictions were spot on the money.

Formerly an obscure academic, he has received invitations to speak before influential organizations such as United States Congress and the Council on Foreign Relations.

As of September 2008, he remains pessimistic on the future of the US economy –saying “The stock market and housing prices have another 10-15% drop ahead of us.”


He has said that “we have a subprime financial system, not a subprime mortgage market”. He does not believe that the United States is entering the next Great Depression, but has said that he believes it will be worst recession since then. He has clarified that his pessimism is focused on the short-run rather than the long-run.


In the 1990s, Roubini studied the collapse of emerging economies. Consistent with the unusual talent noted by Goldman Sachs, he used an intuitive, historical approach backed up by an understanding of theoretical models to analyze these countries and came to the conclusion that a common denominator across examples was the large [current account] deficits financed by loans from abroad. Roubini theorized that the United States might be the next to suffer, and in 2004 began writing about a possible/future collapse

Nouriel Roubini – has an very unique and diverse cultural background.


The New York Times describes Roubini's early life as follows: "He was born in Istanbul, in 1958, the child of Iranian Jews, and his family moved to Tehran when he was two, then to Tel Aviv and finally to Italy, where he grew up and attended college.


He moved to the United States to pursue his doctorate in international economics at Harvard."Roubini resided in Italy from 1962-1983, and is currently a U.S. citizen. He speaks English, Italian, Hebrew, and Persian.

Roubini spent one year at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem before receiving his B.A. summa cum laudein Economics from the Bocconi University (Milan, Italy) in 1982. He received his Ph.D. in international economics from Harvard University in 1988.

Note: Wikipedia is the source of this information.

Reuters News Reports On

Nouriel Roubini's 2009 Outlook

and Financial Crisis

By Jennifer Ablan 2-23-2009

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists who foretold much of the current financial turmoil, on Friday said the United States is nowhere near the end of the banking and credit crisis.


We are still in the third and fourth innings," Roubini told Reuters in an interview, using a baseball analogy to drive home his view that the current cycle is only nearing its midpoint.

"And it's getting worse," said Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor, an independent economic research firm.

On February 10, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner unveiled his newest bailout plan for banks, including the government's so-called "stress tests" involving all banks with more than $100 billion in capital. Regulators will analyze the banks' books far more closely than previously to see if they have the capital to endure worsening conditions.

"It is the step to form an objective way to decide which banks are illiquid and which ones are insolvent and to take over the insolvent bank," Roubini said. "We have to take over some banks."

Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Citigroup Inc (C.N) shares plummeted for a sixth straight day on Friday, hammered by fears that the U.S. government could nationalize the banks, wiping out shareholders.

Nationalization or receivership of a bank need not be a permanent issue, Roubini added.


"I think of it being a temporary measure -- take them over and clean them up and sell them back to the private sector," Roubini said. "No one is in favor of long-term government ownership of the banking system."

For example, IndyMac was bankrupt and taken over in July. "Less than six months later the very same group of private investors was willing to buy back the assets and the deposits," he said.

"So it doesn't have to be under government control for years and years. You can do it actually relatively quickly."

All told, Roubini said he sees negative economic growth throughout 2009, predicting that the unemployment rate could reach roughly 10 percent in the next year.




We Are in the Mother of All Carry Trades:
Roubini said on
Oct. 26 2009:
"Most investors follow the same strategy of borrowing in dollars and investing in assets across the world, and there may be a crash in global assets when the greenback's downward trend reverses."

"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets. Now we are in the mother of all carry trades. Asset prices have been inflated by the cheap funds but the dollar cannot keep falling forever, and there could be a market crash all over the world when the currency's course is reversed......"

"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."

He reiterated his view that the recovery is likely to be anaemic, forecasting growth of between 1 percent and 2 percent for the US in the next two years compared with the country's potential for 3 percent annual growth.

Japan and Europe are likely to grow by less than 1 percent, he said.

"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."